Crypto traders are excited, especially after Bitcoin’s price boost following Square’s millionaire investment in the world’s first cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin managed to survive a bearish September above 10K, maintaining its long-term bullish trend. Since the market crash in March, Bitcoin hasn’t lost its momentum, and after an initial recovery – driven in part by the need to build up a reserve of value and in part by the DeFi craze – the token is slowly but surely rising to new highs.
Bitcoin to $1 million by 2025
And it seems that this has ignited some analysts’ spark, who continuously come up with models and charts with million-dollar forecasts for Bitcoin. And if a few years ago people laughed at John McAfee for saying that Bitcoin could easily reach a million dollars, today many traders believe that goal is not impossible… it’s just a little further away.
For example, Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision Group, believes Bitcoin could hit the million-dollar line sometime in 2025. The prediction is supported by a regression on the log chart since inception, which allows him to project Bitcoin’s future based on past performance.
I just used the regression on the log chart since inception, $1m would be 2 S.D’s. oversold by 2025. I assume regression on log charts is probably a math crime but its just contextual. pic.twitter.com/OVMJumHbPv
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) October 12, 2020
Although Raoul accepts that the data must be taken with a pinch of salt, he’s also sure that his model has some logic. And, at least at first glance, he has more credibility than a McAfee known for shilling and tweeting about crypto while partying under the influence of psychotropics in some tropical corner of the earth.
Raoul’s model shows a relatively cyclical Bitcoin growth scenario. Every four years, perhaps influenced by the effects of halving, bitcoin tends to do the same thing: it drops in price, bottoms out, stabilizes, and recovers. However, the cycles are increasingly profitable for long-term hodlers as the lows become higher and higher, and the spikes also outperform the ones of previous cycles.
Raoul Pal is Not Alone
Other analysts seem to be bullish as well. A lesser-known trader by the username also shared Raoul Pal’s “prediction.” of Bitcoin to 1 million in 2025, based on a logarithmic growth model but considering 4-year cycles with more strength than Raoul’s method.
And don’t forget the famous stock-to-flow model. This study seems to be accurate enough to predict a bullish performance over the next few years, but correlation is not causation, and many crypto influencers are skeptical about it:
#bitcoin$11k, final countdown ?
h/t @BitcoinMemeHub ? sound on! pic.twitter.com/YIGjp8MGU6
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 9, 2020
However, it’s important to note that Bitcoin is very volatile and young, so its price is easily manipulated. Indeed, it can reach a million dollars, but it can also fall for many reasons, from legal to technological.
Perhaps this is why neither Raoul Pal nor any other analyst has ventured to bet on the amputation of private body parts to back the reliability of his model.